Things Getting Better and Worse for Democrats

Depending on which news organization you get your news from, and what polling company you trust, things are getting either better or worse for the Democrats.

Which spin do you by into?

According to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, Democrats are beginning to make up ground.  These same results can also be found in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

According to the WaPo/ABC poll:

“Democrats have cut in half the GOP’s early-September advantage on the question of which party’s candidates voters say they will support on Nov. 2. They have also made small gains on the question of which party people trust to handle big issues, such as the economy and health care… President Obama’s approval rating has rebounded to where it was in July.”

However…

Despite these apparent signs of improvement, the new Post-ABC poll suggests that Democrats remain at a significant disadvantage… Among likely voters, Republicans hold a six-point edge, 49 percent to 43 percent, on the congressional ballot. At this time four years ago, Democrats led by 12 points. Then, Democrats also held a 19-point advantage when voters were asked which party they trusted to deal with the country’s main problems.”

So as things stand, the Dems are still screwed.  “But they’ve made up some ground!” says the pathetic Washington Post pollster.  Of course they made up some ground:  This happens every election cycle.  The losing party starts to close the gap but, wait, it’s never enough.

Clearly the mainstream media are wishing and hoping that the Dems can make a comeback.  You can almost hear the reporters sobbing quietly, crying themselves to sleep.  Their precious idol, Barack Obama, is going to have a hard time ramming left-wing policies through Congress with Republicans in charge.

Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, the Republicans are cementing their lead.  Chris Stirewalt, politics editor for Fox News’s digital platforms, has this to say:

Deep resistance to Obama’s agenda has put a West Virginia Senate seat once thought to be safe territory for Democrats in serious jeopardy.

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters — 48 percent to 43 percent.

In what may be the year’s clearest case of Obama’s downward pull on his party’s candidates, Manchin gets high marks from voters – 66 percent approved of his job performance and 65 percent had a positive view of him personally — but they still prefer Raese.

The survey was conducted before new reports that the head of the state’s Democratic Party, Manchin’s former chief of staff and business partner Larry Puccio, is under scrutiny by federal investigators for state contracts obtained under Manchin.

Manchin’s most obvious problem is Obama’s 29 percent approval rating in the state. Only 12 percent believe that Obama’s policies have helped the state economically, while 55 percent in the coal-rich state believe they have hurt. That is borne out in the slim 28 percent of respondents who supported a plan to address global warming like the one Obama favors.

Additionally, writing about the Connecticut Senate race, Stirewalt has this to say:

Republican hopes to pick up a Democratic Senate seat in Connecticut face a tough reality on the ground.

Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a 10-point lead over Republican Linda McMahon in a new Fox News battleground poll in the race to replace retiring Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).

Blumenthal — elected five times as attorney general — took 52 percent support compared to 42 percent for McMahon, who built a professional wrestling empire with her husband, Vince. The survey was taken before the fiery first debate between the two, moderated by “Special Report” anchor Bret Baier, on Monday night.

Blumenthal was helped by relatively strong support for President Obama. Forty eight percent supported the job he was doing as president and only a slim plurality favored repealing Obama’s national health care law. Forty seven percent were in favor of repeal and 43 percent were opposed – the best showing for the plan in any of this week’s surveys.

In the race for governor, Democrat Dan Malloy, the longtime mayor of Stamford, holds a 6-point edge over Republican Tom Foley, a businessman who served as an envoy to Iraq and an ambassador to Ireland under George W. Bush.

Other pollsters had shown McMahon within striking distance of Blumenthal, but here, voters seem to have deep reservations about her. Fifty one percent of respondents said held an unfavorable view of McMahon, compared to 37 percent who felt the same way about Blumenthal.

Unfortunately, CT voters must have a deep-seated dislike of business people and a strong affinity for liars.  Blumenthal, as you already know, lied about his service in Vietnam.  That in no way is insulting to Vietnam vets, according to Democrats who got really angry when veterans questioned John Kerry’s service.  Apparently Dems only like fake combat veterans.  According to the Fox poll,” 48 percent of respondents said they found him honest and trustworthy, compared to 36 percent who felt the same way about McMahon.”

In Today’s Washington Examiner, Michael Barone examines the recent Gallup poll figures and comes to this conclusion”

Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot question—which party’s candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.

However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.

Having said that, caution is in order.

Yes, caution is certainly in order.  At his point we know  Republicans will take back the House;  We’re just trying to guess how big the margin of victory will be.  And that ain’t no spin.
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